Launch Radar 🚀 - Thursday, March 26

🎯 The Setup

Markets are trading a ceasefire that doesn't exist yet.

Yesterday, risk assets ripped like the war was over. ARM surged 16%. AMD and Intel both jumped 7%. Oil pulled back 5% on diplomacy headlines. Trump held a press conference confirming direct negotiations with Iran. The tape screamed de-escalation.

Then this morning happened. AMD gave back 5%. Intel dropped 4.7%. Oil reversed and pushed back above $93. BTC slid to $69,442 with Fear & Greed hitting 10... one of the lowest readings we've seen all year. The hope trade lasted exactly one session.

Here's what we're watching. Institutional models aren't running one base case for Iran. They're running three scenarios, which tells you nobody with real money believes this is resolved. A 15-point ceasefire plan is circulating. Talks are happening. But the Strait of Hormuz still handles 20% of global oil supply, and one headline can flip this entire trade overnight.

The question every investor should be asking right now isn't "is the war ending?" It's "do I have a plan for what happens the day a ceasefire is actually announced?" Because that could be the single biggest trading day of 2026. Oil drops $15. Defense stocks crater. Energy names reverse. Risk assets rip. If you're not positioned for that possibility, you're going to watch it happen from the sidelines. And if it doesn't happen... oil grinds toward $100 and the Fed's already-impossible job gets harder.

📊 Market Structure

Bitcoin — $69,442 (-2.7%)

Five months without reclaiming the 20-week moving average. Five months of lower highs. Fear & Greed at 10 is the kind of reading we've only seen a handful of times in Bitcoin's history.

$864 million in leveraged positions liquidated recently. 240,000 traders wiped out. The Dumb Money Dopamine Cycle is doing exactly what it does: flushing the late leverage before the next structural move.

BTC relative to the S&P is still roughly 47% below its peak ratio. Relative to gold, it's about 62% below. Midterm-year analogs from 2014, 2018, and 2022 all suggest late March into April weakness continues.

Our level: $60K is the next structural support zone. It parallels the $6K zone from the prior cycle. If we get there, we're buyers. Until then, the bear structure is intact and we're not fighting it.

S&P 500 — $6,550.96 (-0.62%)

Mega-cap tech leadership is cracking. Google -4%, Microsoft -3% in a single session. When the generals start falling, the soldiers don't hold the line much longer.

VIX at 26.27 is elevated but not panicked. That's the uncomfortable middle ground where markets can grind lower without a capitulation flush. The chip sector's failed follow-through yesterday tells us the AI infrastructure bid isn't strong enough yet to carry the broader index.

Gold — $4,465 (-1.86%)

Gold pulled back after an incredible run. In our opinion, this is healthy. The trend hasn't broken. DXY sitting below 100 at 99.71 continues to be supportive for metals. The 10Y yield at 4.39% creates real competition for gold, but the safe-haven bid during geopolitical uncertainty is stronger right now.

Gold has been the cleanest trend on the board for months. A pullback to $4,300-$4,350 would be a gift for anyone who missed the initial breakout.

Oil WTI — $92.99 (+2.96%)

Oil is surging again, and this is the one to watch carefully. +2.96% while equities fade and gold pulls back. If ceasefire talks are supposedly de-escalating Iran risk... why is oil ripping? Either the energy market doesn't believe the ceasefire narrative, or there's a supply disruption story the equity market isn't pricing.

Either way, oil above $90 with PPI running +3.5% YoY is a problem for the "inflation is under control" thesis. Services inflation is already running hotter than goods. This adds fuel to the fire.

🗓️ Upcoming Catalysts — Thursday, March 26

• 8:30 AM ET — Initial Jobless Claims (est. 211K, prev 205K). Any upside surprise here matters more than usual. Private payrolls are already running at +33K/month. If claims start ticking higher, the labor market deterioration narrative accelerates fast.
• 8:30 AM ET — Continuing Jobless Claims (est. 1,860K). The continuing claims number tells you whether people who lose jobs are finding new ones. Watch for a sustained move above 1,900K.
• 3:00 PM ET — Fed Governor Cook speaks on "Reflections on Financial Stability." That title alone should tell you the Fed is nervous. Stability speeches happen when things feel unstable.
• 6:00 PM ET — Fed Vice Chair Jefferson on "Economic Outlook and Energy Effects." Oil at $93 makes this one interesting. If he acknowledges energy-driven inflation pressure, bond yields could move.
• 6:10 PM ET — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks. Worth monitoring given the bank yield suppression thesis and the CLARITY Act fallout.
• 7-Year Note Auction (prev yield 3.790%). Bond auctions have been moving markets this year. Strong demand = risk-on signal. Weak demand = yield pressure continues.

🎯 Our Positioning

Chris:

The price structure is bearish until proven otherwise. We haven't reclaimed the 20-week moving average since October, and every bounce so far has been a lower high. I'm still holding one-third of my original short hedge from the mid-$80Ks.

My base case right now is a washout toward the $50K support confluence. That's where multiple long-term levels stack up and where I'd expect real buying interest to show up. (Full chart breakdown here.)

The exception would be a surprise v-bottom reversal... but we'd need a real catalyst for that. A ceasefire announcement, a Fed pivot, something that actually changes the macro backdrop. Until then, the trend is down and I'm positioned accordingly.

Weekly DCA stays on. Not changing the plan because of Fear & Greed hitting 10. That's actually when the DCA strategy earns its keep.

Travis:

[Positioning drop pending.]

🔭 Under the Radar

Here's something nobody is talking about yet.

For the first time since 1990, college graduates face higher unemployment than non-graduates. 6% vs 4.2%.

Read that number again. The credential premium has inverted.

We've been tracking AI displacement as a macro theme for months, but this is the first hard data point that confirms it's already hitting the labor market structurally. The jobs getting automated first aren't warehouse positions or truck driving routes. They're analyst roles, junior legal work, content production, customer support. White-collar entry-level.

This is the Algo Extinction Event playing out in real time, except instead of algorithmic trading wiping out human day traders (which we lived through around 2010), it's AI wiping out the entry-level knowledge worker pipeline. Same pattern. Different decade. Different industry. Same outcome.

If you're not building skills that complement AI rather than compete with it, the next five years are going to be very uncomfortable. We're not being dramatic. The numbers are already here.

📌 What Matters Next

We're mapping three scenarios from here:

• Ceasefire materializes, risk assets explode higher. If Iran negotiations produce a real deal, we could see one of the largest single-day moves of 2026 across equities, crypto, and oil (down). BTC could snap back to the 20-week MA near $78-80K in a matter of days. This is the pain trade for anyone who sold the fear. Action: have your buy list ready. Don't chase. Set limit orders at your levels NOW.
• Hope fades, grind continues. Ceasefire talks stall. Oil stays above $90. Tech leadership continues deteriorating. BTC grinds toward $60K through April. This is actually the highest-probability scenario based on the failed chip follow-through and the macro data. Action: preserve capital. Don't try to be a hero. Cash is a position.
• Macro shock accelerates everything. Jobless claims surprise to the upside, GDPNow prints negative, or an Iran escalation catches the market offsides. This is the tail risk. Fear & Greed at 10 means there's not much cushion left for a surprise. Action: know your stops. If you're leveraged in any direction, today is the day to reduce.

The one thing we keep coming back to: a Fear & Greed reading of 10 has historically been a zone where generational buying opportunities form... but usually not on the first touch. Patience isn't just a virtue here. It's a strategy.

Data as of pre-market, Thursday, March 26, 2026.

— Chris & Travis

Escape Velocity Investor